After nineteen great economy will rebound after the first dip | nineteen large | Economy | bottom

  Text / Central Economic Work Conference on Reuters opinion leaders (micro-channel public number kopleader) columnist, Zuo-Jun, held December 18 to 20, although the annual meeting, but as an after party nineteenth great first meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference, charged with the task of implementing the nineteen spirit of the guiding ideology of the meeting is not only to guide the 2018 economic work, but also will have a profound economic impact on the future work of the past few years, many have long-term significance for scheduling meetings。 The meeting proposed that socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era, China's economic development has entered a new era, China's economy is the basic feature has been the rapid growth phase of flight to quality development phase。
Promote the development of high quality is to determine the current and future periods and the development of ideas, formulation of economic policy, macro-control of the fundamental requirements。
  2010–2020 China's economy can be divided into three stages since mid-1978 China adopted reform and opening up policy, China's economic development in three stages evolution。   From 1978 to mid-2050, China's economic growth can be divided into three major stages: the first major phase (1978-2010 years) for the high-speed growth phase, with an average annual GDP growth rate of around%; the second largest stage (2010-2020) growth rate for the shift stage, economic growth gradually down the steps; third phase (2020-2050 years) for high-quality stage of development, economic growth to speed or low speed, but at the same time turned to high quality development stage。
  Among them, year after year 2010-20 can be divided into three smaller stages: the first stage of a small (2010-2016) for economic growth continued downward phase。 As GDP growth rate from 2010% to 2011%, 2012%, 2013%, 2014%, 2015%, 2016%, clearly showed a gradual downward trend。
Exports, investment, consumption, industrial added value and other indicators also show similar。   The second stage is a small mid-2017, economic growth stabilizes rebound。
GDP growth in mid-2017 as the first quarter, the second quarter% in the third quarter%, higher than the level of 2016%。
2017 January to November, in addition to dollar-denominated export growth declined% in February, the other will grow by more than% in January, compared with last year's significant reversal。
Real estate investment in January-November grew%, higher than the 2016 growth rate of%。 Private investment in January-November grew%, also higher than the 2016 growth rate of%。 Like other industrial added value, PMI, electricity, etc. are also good performance in 2016。   The third small stage (2018-2020 years) for a smooth bottom and efforts to cultivate new economic momentum phase。   Chinese economy to be stable first dip in mid-2017, after the second quarter economic data out of China's economic analysis there were two distinct opposing views: one view, the Chinese economy has passed the worst case, the bottom has exploration Ming began to enter into a new cycle or new stage; another point of view, stabilization of economic indicators rebound is only temporary economic downturn on the supernatural channel only, the bottom of the Chinese economy has not yet proven。   Which of these two views a more realistic it?What is the reason we look at the cause of economic stabilization and rebound is?For these reasons, if sustainable, then the economy has bottomed if these reasons are not sustainable, then the economy has yet to bottom。
  Cause of economic stabilization and rebound are: First, a major reversal in exports, which is the main reason causing the 2016 GDP growth rate higher than that; the second is a wide range of PPP projects in the country spread, a lot of local support fixed asset investment; Third, housing prices in 2016 caused by the lag effect, so that real estate investment in 2017 than last year, to support economic growth; Fourth, more new loans in 2017, indicating that credit still loose; Fifth, new growth momentum in recent years the implementation of our innovation-driven strategy, promoting popular entrepreneurship and innovation, to cultivate new growth momentum, it also brings some of the effects of economic growth。
  So, for these reasons they may not be sustainable?From the export point of view, the overall growth in the second half by mid-2017 downward, coupled with the recent rampant in some countries against China's anti-dumping and trade protectionism, the export situation next year is likely to be worse than this year。 PPP from the investment point of view, the relevant departments recently began rectifying and standardizing PPP, including state-owned enterprises rectifying and standardizing PPP project。 From the point of view of real estate investment, nineteen Report once again stressed the "house used to live," positioning, the next step is likely to control the four-tier cities prices。 From a credit point of view, the further strengthening of financial supervision and continue to de-leverage and squeeze the bubble, preventing and defusing a significant risk of large environments, it is not sustainable。
The only healthy and sustainable is fostering the growth of new momentum, but the momentum needs to cultivate a new process。
  Therefore, the whole, the bottom of the Chinese economy has not yet proven, to be smooth bottom。   Nineteen large after the Chinese economic trend of China's economy after the nineteenth great features will be presented in five areas: first, the first dip after a rebound; Second, prices will generally stable; third, will continue to optimize the economic structure ; fourth, old and new will accelerate the conversion of kinetic energy; fifth, will speed up the process of economic risk。   First, after nineteen large economies will bottom rebound after the first。   The foregoing analysis, currently bottom of the Chinese economy has not yet proven。 In this regard, nineteen Report has a very clear understanding, manifested in two aspects: First, no specific goal of doubling economic growth; the second is clear that one of the three battle next three years is to guard against and defuse a significant risk。 Indeed, the economic dip is not a bad thing, just to make the economy stable bottom, in order to solve the contradiction between the stock in order to make clear the market, can really down to earth, in order to really to a new journey。
But the bottom is also risky, we should strive to make the economy stable bottom, hold the bottom line of systemic economic risk does not occur。
Therefore, we must unswervingly continue to deepen the one hand, the supply-side structural reforms, on the other hand speed up fostering the growth of new economic growth momentum。   To understand the economic trends after nineteen large, must have a clear understanding of China's current stage of development in which the economy。
According to previous analysis, China's economy is still in a growth phase shift。
Growth stages of economic development is the shift conversion, that rapid economic growth in the high growth phase to a medium or medium-speed growth phase conversion。
After more than six years of growth is shifting, sustained economic growth down sharply overall nearing completion, but not yet completed, will enter in the new platform, the new platform is not, going to mark a new stage platform。
  To understand the economic trends after nineteen large, there must be a clear understanding of our current economic cycle in which the。
The economic cycle has four cycles: the first is about the short period of four years (or inventory cycle or Kitchin cycle), which starts from the end of a period of roughly 2014, is currently in the top down stage。 The second is about 10 years period (or periods or industrial production cycles or Juglar cycle), this round cycle starting from around 2009, is currently in the stage of tail or fast-bottom stage。
The third is the long-period (or construction or real estate cycle period or periods or financial Kuznets cycle) about 20 years, a long period after starting from 2003 years ago, is currently in the overall downtrend。 Fourth 50– about 60 years long period (or periods of technological progress or Kondratieff cycle), which is a long period if counting from 1971, is currently at an advanced stage, when from 1991 since the beginning, it is currently at its peak。   Currently the actual operation of the Chinese economy is the superposition of economic development, and four-stage conversion cycle caused。
Overall, the Chinese economy is currently in the bottom, not the bottom, going to the bottom of the stage。
As long as the economy stable bottom, with the new dynamics of growth, China's economy will rebound in the stock market out of a small, but can not rebound to 2010% that the height。
In short, it may be the first dip, after a slight rebound, then continue forward。   Two great nineteenth after the price trend will generally stable。   CPI from the point of view, has been relatively stable in recent years, 2015%, 2016%, slightly lower than 2017 in 2016, but higher than in 2015, is expected next year will continue the trend of steady。
PPI from the point of view, from March 2012 until August 2016 to start 54 consecutive months of negative growth since the September 2016 start of positive growth in 2017 from January to November every month in% or more, it can be said there is a clear reversal。
The possibility of mid-2018 the overall PPI lower than the 2017, but the continuous negative growth of little more than a month。
  Third, the economic structure will continue after nineteen large optimization。   Why will continue to optimize the economic structure?One reason is that economic restructuring will be Forced to optimize the economic structure; second reason is that the growth momentum will drive new economic structure optimization。
Optimizing the economic structure mainly in three aspects: First, the contribution of final consumption to GDP remain high。
2014, final consumption contribution to GDP ratio reached% 2015% 2016% 2017 remain above 60%, is expected 2018 will be, too。 Second, the service industry accounts for the proportion of GDP continues to rise。 2013 service industry accounts for the proportion of GDP% for the first time exceeded the proportion of secondary industry, 2014%, 2015%, 2016%, 2017 will be more than 52% in 2018 is expected to reach 53% the above。
Third, the urbanization rate continues to rise。
Over the past five years, an average annual increase of urbanization rate percent urbanization rate in 2014%, 2015%, 2016%, 2017 will be more than 58% in 2018 is expected to reach more than 59%。   Fourth, the old and new momentum after nineteen large will accelerate the conversion。   Over the past years, China mainly rely on three old kinetic energy to promote economic growth: first, is to rely on exports, investment and consumption, "Troika", this particular investment carriages stimulate economic growth; the second is to rely on extensive investment in large-scale elements stimulate economic growth; third, is to rely on GDP-oriented system to promote economic growth。 Now these three old kinetic energy, on the one hand diminishing marginal utility, on the other hand increase in side effects and sequelae。 Therefore, we must accelerate the nineteenth large fostering the growth of new momentum, continue to achieve new and kinetic energy conversion。
Need to cultivate new growth of kinetic energy, we can summarize it as institutional changes, structural optimization, upgrade elements of "three engines"。
Among them, institutional change refers to the reform, structural optimization, including new industrialization, new urbanization, regional economic integration, internationalization, factors upgrades include technological progress, to enhance human capital, promote information technology, knowledge, growth, etc.。
These three engines correspond to approximately the central emphasis of the reform, transformation and innovation of these three areas。
No doubt, nineteen large momentum will accelerate the growth of the new, old and new momentum will continue to accelerate conversion。   Fifth, after the big economic risk nineteen will speed up the process。
  Over the past nearly two decades of sustained high economic growth, resulting in the real economy, including excess capacity, high prices and other asset price bubbles, high leverage, increased resource and environmental constraints, the wealth gap and other issues, accumulated no small economic bubble and risks。
These issues, foam and risks, some are solving process, some also require the nineteenth Daxin more forceful measures to resolve。
Nineteen major report has made it clear that you want to guard against and defuse the risk of major battle as one of the next three years。 It is anticipated that the combined effect of promoting comprehensive reform, deepen the supply-side structural reforms, optimize the macro-control policies, economic risks will speed up the process。

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