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Huijie (002763): Revenue growth of all channels is stable and the sales expense ratio is increased and accrued inventory impairment drags down profits

Huijie (002763): Revenue growth of all channels is stable and the sales expense ratio is increased and accrued inventory impairment drags down profits

Revenue has grown steadily, the increase in the sales expense ratio and the provision for impairment of assets have dragged down profits.

94 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

46%, net profit attributable to mother 1.

9.1 billion, an annual increase of 6.

38%, net profit after deduction to mother 1.

89 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

10%.

Single-quarter revenue in Q2 2019.

45 ppm, a ten-year increase of 9.

73%, net profit attributable to mother 0.

77 ppm, a 10-year increase3.

98%.

The decrease in the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers in the single quarter was mainly due to the significant increase in the sales expense ratio caused by the increase in store opening and rental expenses in the second quarter, and the increase in the loss of inventory depreciation.

Expansion of directly-operated distribution stores, stable growth in revenue from various channels, and distribution channels, the company’s direct-operated / distribution / e-commerce revenue increased by +12 in 2019H1.

88% / + 15.

55% / + 11.

32%, accounting for 51.

08% / 19.

30% / 29.

62%.

In terms of brands, Manifen / Ivis / Landzolly / Jiayi Shangpin accounted for 62% of revenue respectively.

56% / 15.

59% / 8.

86% / 6.

76% (no sub-brand data were disclosed during the same period last year).

In terms of channels, the company had 1,333 / 1668 direct sales / distribution channels at the end of the second quarter, an increase of 33/123 earlier.

Promote the transformation of the brand division to subsidiaries, and promote 天津夜网 the improvement of operating efficiency. The company will realize the close connection between the interests of subsidiaries and the interests of employees of the brand division in the form of equity by converting the original brand divisions into subsidiaries.

At present, related operating subsidiaries have been established for brands such as Jiayi Shangpin, Lan Zhuoli, Sang Fulan, Secret Weapon, and Ivis. Through the reform, the company promotes incentives for employees, improves operational efficiency and accelerates brand development.

The 2019-2021 results are expected to be 0.

60 yuan / share, 0.

70 yuan / share, 0.

The 77 yuan / share company has a number of mature operating underwear brands, with extensive channel layout, and each brand’s performance has grown steadily.

The company’s 2019 EPS is expected to be 0.

60 yuan, the company’s estimated average since the listing is more than 15 times, as a domestic brand underwear leader to give the company 16 times the PE valuation in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value of 9.

60 yuan / share, maintaining the “overweight” rating.

Risks indicate the risk of a downturn in retail sales, the production capacity distribution is less than expected, and the risk of poor operation of the acquisition target.

AVIC Mechanical & Electrical (002013): Steady growth in performance and continuous advancement of asset integration

AVIC Mechanical & Electrical (002013): Steady growth in performance and continuous advancement of asset integration

I. Overview of the event On March 14, the company released its 2018 annual report, thereby achieving an operating income of 116.

37 ‰, an increase of 4 per year.

08%; net profit attributable to mother 8.

3.7 billion, an increase of 16 per year.

49%.

In the first quarter of 2019, the company achieved a net profit of 47.27 million yuan?
61.45 million yuan, an annual increase of 0?
30%.

Second, analysis and judgment focus on the main business, improve quality and efficiency, and stable growth in performance. In 2018, the company achieved net profit attributable to mothers.

37 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.

49%.

Gross margin 26.

30%, an increase of 0 compared with the same period last year.

14pct, basically lies in the company’s focus on its main business, and its profitability continues to improve.

Three fee ratio of 17.

12%, a decline of 0 per year.

33 points.

In 2019, the company will continue to focus on the main business, enhance the core capabilities of the military aviation business, and at the same time develop civil aviation, and do a good job of research on three major types of projects such as C919, AG600, MA700.

The company’s operating goals in 19 years: revenue 12.3 billion, maximize profits11.

5.6 billion, the performance is expected to continue to grow steadily.

The increase in the number of military aircraft + the upgrade of electromechanical systems. The aviation industry has steadily developed the “World Air Power 2019” report, which shows that there are 3187 internal military aircraft in service and 13,398 in the United States, of which only 23 are in the United States.

79%, the increase in the number of fighters in the future will drive the demand for transmission systems.

In addition, the advanced development capabilities of the world’s aviation industry are graded, and there are generation gaps in the internal aero-electromechanical systems, which have become key factors for the overall combat performance of the aircraft after the engine.R & D budgets and policies support expected growth.

Benefiting from the increase in the number of military aircraft in the future and the upgrading of mechanical and electrical systems, the company’s main aviation industry strives to maintain stable growth.

The Nanjing Center is divided into custodian scopes, and the Asset Continuity and Sustainable Company is the listing platform for AVIC-related aviation electromechanical systems.

In 2014, AVIC entrusted AVIC Mechanical and Electrical to manage the equity of 18 enterprises.

Among them, the acquisition of Fenglei and Fengyang has been completed by the end of 2016.

In 2017, the company issued convertible bonds to acquire Singapore Airlines Group and Yibin Sanjiang Machinery, which have been consolidated in 2018.

At the end of 2018, the company adjusted the scope of hosting, reduced 7 hosting companies, and increased 1 Nanjing Center.

Immediately after the adjustment, the average custodian scopes of the 609 and 610 affiliated research institutes within the mechatronic system will be gradually transformed into institutional reforms, and asset consolidation will continue in the future.

Third, profit forecasting and investment advice The company is a leader in aviation machinery and electronics, and the platform is subdivided. We are optimistic about the company’s long-term development.

Expected company 2019?
In 2021, the EPS will be 0.

26, 0.

30 and 0.

35 yuan, corresponding PE is 28X, 24X and 21X, comparable company PE35X in 19 years, give “recommended” rating.

4. Risk warnings: 1. The 杭州桑拿 military aircraft installation fails to meet expectations; 2. The institutional reform does not meet expectations

Dream Lily (603313): Layout Overseas Channels to Acquire American Furniture Enterprises

Dream Lily (603313): Layout Overseas Channels to 佛山桑拿网 Acquire American Furniture Enterprises

Event: The company issued an announcement on planning a major event: The company or its holding subsidiary intends to acquire Mor Furniture For Less, Inc. by paying cash.

80% -85% of common shares in issue and Mor Furniture For Less, Inc.

Of all derivative securities.

  Opinion: Merger and acquisition of American furniture companies, further expansion of overseas channels.

The basic purchase price of this acquisition will be based on the entire predicted corporate value of the target company’s USD 68.4 million, excluding liabilities and cash, and the specific transaction price will be determined through mutual negotiation between the two parties.

The acquisition of Mor Furniture is one of the largest family furniture companies on the west coast of the United States. It currently has 33 stores in six states (Arizona, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Washington).

Mor furniture mainly sells living room, dining room, bedroom, study and entertainment room, children’s five major space furniture and clocks, wall decorations and other home accessories. The categories are rich and diverse, and the product types cover the whole house space.

In the mattress category, Mor Furniture currently operates a total of 42 brands including seven brands including Shuda, Hi House, Temple, Silian, Lace, Jin Kerer, Stearns & Foster and its own brands.

In terms of products and services, Mor upholds the principle of full category, multiple choices, and serves customers world-class with a bearing capacity in the West Coast of the United States.

After the acquisition of Mor furniture, the company will have US sales channels, which will help the company’s own brand sales. OBM’s revenue share in the company’s export business will increase, driving growth in gross profit margin.

  The depreciation of the RMB + the price reduction of raw materials increased the gross profit margin from the previous month.

Since May this year, the renminbi has continued to depreciate, and the offshore exchange rate against the US dollar has increased from 6.
.

70 depreciated to 7.

07.

At the same time, the price of TDI, the company’s main chemical raw material, dropped from a high of 17,500 yuan / ton to 12,700 yuan / ton. The decline in raw material prices contributed to the improvement of gross profit margin.

  Profit forecast and estimation: The company’s EPS for 19-21 is expected to be 1.

13, 1.

40, 1.

70 yuan, corresponding PE is 16X, 13X, 11X.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk reminder: the price of raw materials rises sharply, and the domestic sales channel is not well developed

Meike Home (600337): Actively optimize supply chain and improve category channels

Meike 深圳丝袜会所 Home (600337): Actively optimize supply chain and improve category channels
This report reads: The company actively improved its brand matrix, steadily advanced its category and channel layout, and maintained steady revenue growth.The supply chain improvement strategy is actively promoted and implemented, which is expected to bring continuous improvement in operating efficiency. Investment Highlights: Reduce target price to 4.6 5 yuan to maintain the overweight level.The company actively improved the brand matrix, and steadily advanced through category and channel layout, and expected to maintain steady growth in revenue.Considering the adverse effects of increased industry competition, lowering 2019?EPS to 0 in 2021.28 (-0.03) / 0.31 (-0.06) / 0.34 (-0.1) Yuan, refer to comparable companies to give 15 times PE in 2020, reduce 深圳桑拿网 target price to 4.65 yuan, maintaining the overweight level. Revenue and performance growth were in line with expectations.The company achieved revenue of 27 in 2019H1.09 million yuan, an increase of 7.27%; realized net profit attributable to mother 2.1.6 billion, an increase of 5.11%; revenue and performance growth are in line with expectations.Selling expenses decreased by 7.5% comes from the steady advancement of digital precision marketing and standardized sales management.97% came from a decrease in consulting services spending and management expenses. The supply chain improvement strategy was actively promoted and implemented, and the improvement of operating efficiency continued.The company optimized its inventory structure and improved its supply chain planning capabilities. The delivery cycle was improved by 8 days compared to 2018.Lock the 90-day order cycle through the dynamic pin balance mechanism, adjust inventory stocks in time, continue to optimize the raw material inventory structure and control inventory levels.In addition, the company uses consumer financial policies to stimulate customer purchases to accelerate the pace of collection.In 2019H1, the operating cash flow turned from negative to positive, and the inventory size decreased by 13%. Transform from a product retailer to a platform brand, and actively explore new channels.The company has a wealth of brand operation experience, covering domestic online and offline 7 channel brands and 4 international wholesale brands, forming a complete brand matrix to fully meet the needs of various consumers and expand the market.With the increase in the number of direct sales and franchised stores, the brand’s market share in cities is expected to increase more and more.In addition, the company actively promotes real estate and hotel cooperation to achieve overall delivery of hardware and software, and continuously expands the company’s business scale. It is expected to gradually become an important supplement to the retail channel. Risk warning: risk of real estate fluctuation, risk of raw material price fluctuation

CITIC Securities: If the U.S. interest rate cut in July, China will gradually follow a rate cut with a high probability

CITIC Securities: If the U.S. interest rate cut in July, China will gradually follow a rate cut with a high probability

Source: Key points of the report in a clear written report. At 20:30 Beijing time on July 10th, the Fed announced the testimony of Powell Congress.

Powell then began a hearing in the House.

Powell reviewed the economic situation and monetary policy in the first half of 2019 in congressional testimony, and re-published dovish comments: the gradual weakness may be longer than previously expected by the Fed, which has increasingly triggered loose expectations.

After the testimony was released, the CME Fed watch showed that the interest rate cut in July to.

00% -2.

A 25% probability is 76.

5%, cut interest rate to 1.

75% -2.

The probability of the 00% interval is 23.

5%.

And if the United States cuts interest rates in July, then China is likely to follow suit.

Specifically, we believe that the following aspects of the voucher note worthy of attention Powell broke the current status and outlook of the US economy in the first half of 2019 in the voucher words, that they are relatively complex, and summarized the monetary policy in the first half of 2019Performing well and expanding towards the tenth decade; however, it has consistently exceeded the 2% target of the Federal Open Market Committee, and its weakness may last longer than previously expected, while trade tensions and global economic growthVarious interlaced and complex trends have been affecting economic activity and prospects.

At its January, March, and May meetings, the Fed stated that it would be patient to target the appropriate federal funds rate.

In a statement to the conference in June, given the uncertain economic outlook and weaker expectations, the Fed stated that it will closely monitor economic data and take appropriate actions to maintain economic growth.

  Powell’s reissue of the doves this time is said to be more fatigued than expected: Powell mentioned that PCE was close to its target of 2% for most of last year and declined in the first 5 months of this year, of which MayIs 1.

5%.

Core PCE indicators have also declined this year.

Powell said the Fed’s basic expectation is that a shift in inflation expansion time back to the Commission’s 2% goal.

However, the uncertainty of the US economic outlook has increased in recent months, and the weak sustainability may be longer than the Fed expected.

The Fed is carefully monitoring the development of various issues and continues to evaluate their impact on the US economic outlook and intensification.

  The hearing may be a signal that the Fed’s internal divisions are temporarily unified: the Fed’s monetary policy in 2019 shows potential uncertainty, and there are also differences within the Fed.

After the June interest rate meeting, the market showed supplementary interest rate cut expectations, but before the hearing, Fed officials expressed their neutrality on various occasions.

In the previous period, Powell was more entangled in qualitative monetary policy, and he was unwilling to make a clear statement. For example, in the press conference after the June interest rate meeting, Powell did not respond to economic data.Hearing Powell is expected to exceed the expected previous forecast, and has a unified opinion on the short-term temporarily, indicating that the Fed may have reached a temporary unification from the division.

  Conclusion: Powell ‘s gradual expression has changed. The basic expectation of the Democratic Federal Reserve is to transfer the inflation transfer time back to the Commission ‘s goal of 2%. However, at this hearing, Powell ‘s previous expectations exceeded expectations and remained weak.It may be longer than previously expected. This statement indicates that the Fed’s internal opinions on the breakthrough are temporarily unified, thus paving the way for the interest rate cut in July.

Powell’s testimony highlighted the risks of less than expected global development, high federal debt, Brexit, relative stagnation in low- and middle-income gains, and other issues facing the US economic development process, including low-income household income growth.

The signal is that the Federal Reserve may open the door to a rate cut in July.

And if the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in July, it will also open up room for domestic interest rate cuts, and China will gradually follow a high probability.

  At 20:30 on July 10th, Beijing time, the Fed announced the testimony of Powell Congress.

Then 22:20 Powell began a hearing in the House.

Powell reviewed the economic situation and monetary policy in the first half of 2019 in congressional testimony, and re-published dovish commentary: The gradual weakness may be more persistent than previously expected by the Fed, which has increasingly triggered loose expectations.

After the testimony was released, the CME Fed watch showed that the interest rate cut in July to.

00% -2.

A 25% probability is 97.

2%, cut interest rate to 1.

75% -2.

The probability of the 00% interval is 23.

5%.

Specifically, we think that the following aspects of the voucher note are worthy of attention. Powell’s sentence is most noteworthy: inflation is more than expected, and there is a risk that weak inflation will last longer than we currently expect.  (I) Economic Fundamentals Review: Intertwined and complex Bobwell was decomposed into the current status and outlook of the US economy in his testimony, declaring that the complexity of the decomposition: the economic performance in the first half of 2019 was good, and it is now in a decadeExpansion; at the same time, it has always been below the FOMC target of 2%, and its weakness may last longer than previously expected, and the complex and complex trends of trade tensions and global economic growth have been affecting economic activity and prospects.

  The rate of job creation has declined, but the labor market has remained largely healthy: from January to June, the average monthly increase has been 17.

20,000 jobs.

It was lower than the average of 22 per month last year.

30,000, but faster than needed to provide employment to new workers entering the labor market.

  GDP is performing well, but the supporting factors are not persistent: in the first quarter of 2019, the annual GDP growth was 3.
.

1%, unchanged from the same period last year, is mainly driven by net exports and inventory components, which are usually not reliable indicators of continued momentum.

More 武汉夜网论坛 reliable drivers are consumer spending and business investment.

Although consumer spending has rebounded, corporate investment growth has increased significantly.

Corporate fixed investment forecasts may reflect complements to trade tensions and global economic growth.

In addition, housing investment and manufacturing output declined in the first quarter, and it appears to have declined in the second quarter.

  Powell also mentioned that the United States continues to face many important long-term challenges: including that labor force participation rates are now lower than in most other economies.

There are disturbing differences in the labor market across different populations and regions.

The relative stagnation of low- and middle-income families and the initial rise in income for low-income households have also received attention.

The long-term impact of high federal debt remains worthwhile-it will curb private investment, reduce development and overall economic growth.

The long-term vitality of the US economy will benefit from efforts to address these issues.

  (B) Powell’s review of monetary policy: from waiting patiently to taking appropriate action The Federal Open Market Committee maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 2 in the first half of this year.

25% to 2.

50%.

At its January, March, and May meetings, the Fed indicated that it would be patient to gradually move towards a federal funds rate that might support the largest employment and price stabilization goals.

  In a statement to the conference in June, given the uncertain economic outlook and weaker expectations, the Fed stated that it will closely monitor economic data and take appropriate actions to maintain economic growth.

After the June interest rate meeting, many members of the Federal Open Market Committee found it justified to adopt a slightly looser monetary policy.

Changes in data and global developments since then, uncertainties in trade tensions, and other factors appear to continue to affect the outlook for the US economy.

  The July Monetary Policy Report will reveal more details about the Federal Reserve’s scale-back.

At the March interest rate meeting, the Fed communicated the reasons for ending the contraction: from May, the progress of the contraction was slowed down, and the contraction was ended in September, but no details were announced.

The July monetary policy report will provide details on the end of the contraction.

The July monetary policy report also includes updates to monetary policy rules.

  Second, Powell: Weak inflation may last longer than expected. The core PCE in May in the United States is still less than the 2% gradual goal.

The United States PCE once a month in May.

52%, the former value is 1.

56%, in line with expectations1.

5%; core PCE1.

60%, the former value is 1.

62%, in line with expectations1.

6%; US May CPI quarter 1.

8%, previous value 2%, expected 1.

9%; core CPI was previously 2% and previous value was 2.

1%, expected 2.

1%.
5 months PPI 1 per year.
8%, the previous value was 2.

2%, expected 2.

0%; May core PPI every two years.

3%, previous value was 2.

4%, expected 2.

3%.

Personal income in May was 0 MoM.

5%, previous value is 0.

5%, expected 0.

3%.

In May, the PCE was in line with expectations but did not reach the expected target of 2%. The extension of CPI and PPI were less than expected, resulting in weak overall data.

  Powell said in a speech that fatigue is expected to be weaker than expected: after approaching the target of 2% for most of the past, PCE has declined in the first five months of this year, of which it was 1 in May.

5%.

Core PCE indicators, excluding food and energy prices, have also fallen this year, to 1 in May.

6%.

The Fed’s basic expectation is that economic growth will remain stable, the labor market will remain strong, and the transition time for inflation will gradually return to the Commission’s target of 2%.

However, the uncertainty of the US economic outlook has increased in recent months, and the economic conditions of some major foreign economies may affect the US economy.

In addition, some political and economic risks remain unresolved, including trade developments, the federal debt ceiling and Brexit.

There is also the risk that weak inflation may last longer than before.

The Fed is carefully monitoring the development of various issues and continues to evaluate their impact on the US economic outlook and intensification.

  The continuation of the weak inflation situation can be analyzed from three sub-items: In the previous report “Bond Market Qiming Series 20190704-What is dragging down the current U.S. earnings”, we made a prediction that the United States may continue to be depressed,Powell’s testimony confirmed the Air Force’s judgment.

Since July last year, the core PCE in the United States has a significant downward trend, and the five months after July 18 have slightly fallen below the target of 2%, while the core PCE has remained at 1 in the five months since 19 years.

8% or less.

Judging from the proportion and the range of change, the main causes of the expected drag are the three aspects of housing, transportation and medical care.

From the comprehensive analysis of information such as the weakening of new home sales data, the leading property indicators of housing prices, the breakdown of car sales data, and the decline in the cost of hospital outpatients, the drag caused by the three sub-items may continue, and the range may be lower than expected.A long process.

  The weight is as high as 42.

The housing sub-item of 17 is controversial and may continue the downward trend since 2017.

Weak personal savings since 18 years and the long-term accompanying increase in long-term loan growth have caused the U.S. housing market to experience a cold. The average increase in housing loans in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019 is only a quarter of the average in the first three quarters of 2018.Three.

Although the previous downturn in the housing market index of mortgage interest rates has picked up, the current housing index is still low, and the new home sales data, the leading indicator of house prices, has shifted again, so it can be expected that housing in the future may continue to drag down gradually.

  The weights are 15% and 7 respectively.

72% of the transportation and healthcare sub-items continued their expected growth levels during the year.

The transportation sub-item with the second largest weight has started to decline significantly since July last year, and was even negative in January and February of this year.

Although the annual growth rate of this sub-item turned positive in March of this year, the weakening of automobile sales indicates that the transportation sub-item may still be a potential drag in the future.

Due to the decline in the cost of hospital outpatient services, the healthcare sub-item has maintained an overall downward trend over August 2016 every year, and has been at a historically low level since the third quarter of 2017.

These two important items may continue to negatively affect the United States in the future.

  Third, this hearing: May be a signal of internal disagreement to the temporary unification of the interest rate meeting on June 20. Based on the labor market, earnings performance and expectations, the Fed announced to maintain the federal funds rate at 2.

25% -2.

In the 50% range, the general and excess reserve interest rates will be maintained at 2.

35%.
Compared with the interest rate meeting in May, the Fed ‘s attitude has changed from a dovish attitude to a “patiently waiting” statement toward “monitoring, taking appropriate actions to maintain economic growth, a strong job market, and a near-target alternative”.
  A bitmap that reflects the FOMC’s expectations of the midpoint of the federal funds rate target range shows that ticketing has a penetrating split on whether the interest rate is properly reduced.

Seven ticketing committees believe that the federal funds rate will supplement and replace 1 in 2019.

75-2.

In the 0 range, 8 members of the voting committee thought it should stay at 2.

25-2.

In the 50 range, one voting committee thought that it should be raised to 2.

50-2.

Paragraph 75. One committee thought that it should be reduced to two.

0-2.

25 intervals.

Fed Chairman Powell said after the meeting that although no one participated in the interest rate cut this time, he acknowledged that the bitmap of the meeting has released some signals of interest rate cuts.

  The Fed’s monetary policy in 2019 shows consistent uncertainty, and there are also differences within the Fed, and a hearing may herald a temporary unification within the Fed by division.

After the June interest rate meeting, the market showed supplementary expectations of interest rate cuts, but recently Fed officials have returned to neutrality on various occasions.

In the early period, Powell was more entangled in his qualitative monetary policy, and he was unwilling to make too obvious statements. For example, in a press conference after the June interest rate meeting, Powell highlighted that he should not respond to economic data excessively.In this hearing, Powell mentioned that the estimates beyond the previous period indicate that the Fed has a unified opinion on the continuity temporarily, thus paving the way for the interest rate cut in July.

This year’s stock market’s response to monetary policy is more sensitive than that of the bond market, mainly because the world has entered the trap of high asset prices + low interest rates, and asset prices will usher in volatility whenever there is a “wind and grass”.

  Fourth, the job market: Although there has been improvement, the unemployment rate and average hourly wage are not as expected. 6 months of US employment data. The unemployment rate and average hourly wage are not as expected.

The newly released non-agricultural data on July 5 shows that non-agricultural employment was added in June22.

40,000, expected 160,000, the previous value was reduced to 7.

20,000 people.

Professional and commercial employment services, health care, transportation and warehousing have grown significantly, while employment in the manufacturing and construction industries has improved slightly, while employment in other industries, mining, retail trade, information, government, financial activities and other industries has changed little.

The unemployment rate did not increase or decrease in non-agricultural employment, but rose slightly to 3.

7%, higher than expected and previous values; average hourly earnings were 0.

2%, lower than expected 0.

3%; annual growth of 3.

1%, less than expected 3.

2%; therefore, although non-agricultural employment exceeds expectations, the unemployment rate and wage data are not satisfactory.

  Fifth, the state of the US economy: consumption pulls down; manufacturing continues to weaken; in the long run, the US economy remains pessimistic; May ‘s consumption data has ushered in a phased improvement. The core retail sales in May in the U.S. rose, new housing starts rose, and residents saved in the past two monthsExpected to decline from the end of the first quarter.

Core retail sales in the US in May were valued at 0 compared to the previous month.

5%, expected 0.

3%, previous value is 0.

5%; US core retail sales performed better in April and May than in the first quarter.

The number of years of personal savings budget in May 19 was $ 985.4 billion, compared with the previous value of $ 975 billion.

Personal savings accounted for 6% of disposable income in May.

1%, previous value was 6.

1%; The ratio of personal savings to disposable income in the first quarter of 19 was 6.

7%, compared to 6 in the fourth quarter of 2018.

5%, the proportion of household savings in the past two months has declined slightly compared with the end of the first quarter and lower than the end of last year.

  In contrast, US manufacturing data for May is exciting.

Markit Manufacturing PMI was 50 in May.
5, before the value of 52.
6, the lowest since September 2009.

The US ISM Manufacturing Index for December is now 52.

1, the lowest since October 2016.

US Markit service industry PMI in May was 50.

9, significantly higher than expected 53.

2.
US May ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 56.

9, higher than the previous value of 55.

5, hitting a new high since February.

  Consumption has improved in stages, but the pulling effect has been insufficient, investment performance has been weak, and exports and government spending have not been able to form a support point. In the long run, the US economy is expected to be pessimistic.

At present, the leverage ratios of the non-financial corporate sector and the government sector in the United States are at historical highs. When the United States was facing a recession since 1980, the leverage ratios of the non-financial corporate sector reached historical highs almost simultaneously.

At the same time, the current investment and consumption performance of the United States is better than good: the growth rate of US durable goods supplementary orders except for defense is currently in an alternating state; although the consumption data has improved in the past two months, the role of consumption in driving GDP has improved.The rate of personal consumption expenditure on GDP is declining from 2 in the second quarter of last year.

57% fell to 0 in the first quarter of this year.

90%.

Hit by the high leverage of government agencies, the Serbian government’s fanfare restructuring infrastructure plan has not yet been fulfilled, and expectations of government spending efforts have failed.

From the perspectives of investment, consumption, exports, and government spending, it is difficult for the US economy to find the next point of strength, or it will be weak.

  Bond market strategy Powell’s change of attitude conveyed the Fed’s open attitude to cut interest rates, which will also open up room for domestic interest rate cuts.

Powell’s expression of carbides has changed. At a press conference after the June interest rate meeting, Powell concentrated on not responding to economic data excessively, and more carefully observed various future information. The essence of the Fed is that inflation followsWe just returned to the Commission ‘s target of 2% at the acceleration of time; Powell mentioned the previous forecast of the hearing and kept it weak for longer than previously expected, indicating that the Fed has a unified opinion for the time being.This paved the way for a rate cut in July.

Powell ‘s testimony highlighted the risks of less than expected global development, high federal debt, Brexit, relative stagnation in low- and middle-income gains, and other issues facing the US economic development process, including low-income household income growth.The signal is that the Federal Reserve may open the door for a rate cut in July.
And if the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in July, it will also open up room for domestic interest rate cuts, and it will gradually follow with a high probability.

Juewei Food (603517) Interim Report Comments: Revenue Maintains Rapid Growth, Downward Rates Decrease, and Investment Income Increases Help Performance Exceed Expectations

Juewei Food (603517) Interim Report Comments: Revenue Maintains Rapid Growth, Downward Rates Decrease, and Investment Income Increases Help Performance Exceed Expectations
Investment Highlights: Event: The company released its 2019 Interim Report and achieved operating income24.90,000 yuan, an increase of 19 in ten years.42%; net profit attributable to mothers3.96 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.81%; operating income in the second quarter of 1913.36 ppm, an increase of 19 years.2%; achieve net profit attributable to mother 2.15 ppm, an increase of 30 in ten years.8%.The company’s second-quarter revenue performance was basically in line with expectations, and its performance exceeded expectations. Investment Ratings and Estimates: We maintain our profit 杭州夜网论坛 forecast for 2019-218.01, 9.78, 11.73 ppm, an increase of 25%, 22%, and 20% each year, corresponding to an EPS forecast of 1.40, 1.70, 2.04 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE for 2019-20 is 28, 23 times, maintain BUY rating. The newly opened stores and store upgrades merged actively to contribute, and the revenue side maintained rapid growth: the company’s revenue growth in 19Q2 increased by 19.2%, continued to maintain rapid growth, the growth of newly opened stores and same-store growth has made considerable positive contributions.In terms of stores, as of June 30, 19, the number of the company’s stores reached 10,598, a net increase of 683 in the first half of the year, the number of stores increased by about 12% over the beginning of the year, compared with the same period last year, the speed of opening stores has been improved, is expected to be the same as the company’s antique stores this yearConcerning the competition and related preferential policies, the incremental revenue contribution of newly opened stores in the first half of the year is expected to be at double-digit levels.From the same store perspective, the company’s same-store revenue is expected to achieve a high number of growth in the first half of 19, mainly benefiting from the company’s continuous reduction activities in the first half of the year, the upgrade of high-potential stores and fourth-generation stores, and the early implementation of some small categories.Direct price increase.While opening stores quickly, the same store still maintained a rapid growth, indicating that downstream demand remained high. The cost pressure H2 is expected to gradually decrease, and the decline in management expense ratio and increase in investment income will help improve profitability: the company’s net profit margin in 19Q215.9%, increase by 1 every year.49 points, mainly due to the decline in management expense ratio.Specifically, the overall gross profit margin of the company in 19Q2 was 35.03%, down by 1 every year.36pct, mainly due to the impact of rising costs, but the company also made a raw material reserve in the case of reducing costs. It is expected that the low-cost raw materials that are stored in the long-term in the second half of the year may gradually be reflected in costs, which will help improve gross margin performance.Costs continue to increase, and the company has the ability to deal with digestion through price increases, without having to overdo it.In terms of expense ratios, the sales / management and R & D / financial expense ratios of the 19Q2 companies were 9 respectively.0%, 5.1%, 0.8% per year.19, -1.45, +0.9pct, of which the decrease in the rate of management and research and development expenses is expected to mainly benefit from the improvement in operating management efficiency. The increase in financial expenses is expected to be related to the company’s issue of convertible debt financing.In addition, 19Q2 achieved a net investment income of 14.48 million yuan, a significant improvement over negative values in the same period last year, and also contributed positively to the improvement of overall net profit, mainly benefiting from the good operating performance of the participating company, Sefia. The new business “Pepper flavor” creates new highlights. The format extension and platform operation are the long-term development direction: in addition to the traditional duck by-products business, the company has actively deployed the new format “Pepper flavor” Chuanchuanxiang business since H2 18Starting this year, the scope of the pilot area will be further expanded, and the number of stores will be gradually increased to 200, which will make a positive contribution to the increase in revenue. Taking into account the difference between the business model of “Pepper Flavor” and traditional stores, the unit price of its customers can be 20-30% higher than the main business of traditional duck necks. The average annual single store revenue is expected to be between 1 million and 1.5 million, and it is at the front end.Obvious synergies in production, logistics and distribution can help the company to achieve the extension of brand value and the continuous expansion of scale effects, and the subsequent development contributes considerable profits. The extension of the format and the platform based on the company’s existing advantages are expected to become the company’s medium and long-term development.Important support and incremental sources. Catalysts for continued growth: The number of new stores opened exceeded expectations, and the growth rate of single store revenue exceeded expectations.

Century Huatong (002602): Injecting Shanda’s asset-complementary game categories and new game reserves in the distribution area to accumulate catalytic product flows

Century Huatong (002602): Injecting Shanda’s asset-complementary game categories and new game reserves in the distribution area to accumulate catalytic product flows

Investment background Industry background: The trend of high-quality mobile game industry is prominent, and the channel platform is expected to be differentiated, which is good for high-quality CP vendors; China’s mobile game has become a global competitiveness, and going overseas has become an important market.

The overall growth rate of the domestic game industry. Incumbent players have increasingly higher requirements for game quality. At the same time, they can expand and accelerate the industry’s boutique trend, which is good for high-quality CP vendors. Channel-side traffic expands, supply increases, and the traffic platform may cut into the game.Initial release, high-quality CP vendors are expected to obtain a higher merger ratio.

The global competitiveness of Chinese mobile games, Newzoo estimates that the global mobile game market will grow at a compound growth rate of 13% in the next three years. It is intensifying in the domestic market competition, and going overseas has become an important growth path.

A little bit of interaction: The overseas advantage is outstanding, the SLG category has a strong performance, and it continues to explore potential categories such as the second dimension. The current new product reserves are abundant.

BitDot has long maintained a stable cooperative relationship with the three major overseas mainstream platforms of Facebook, Google Play and App Store to ensure the advantages of overseas distribution. In the SLG category, it has launched two big models of “King of Avalon” and “The Gungun Era”.The top 南京桑拿网 iOS bestseller list in many countries around the world.

On the basis of strengthening the advantageous categories, Bit-Interaction continues to tap other potential categories. It plans to launch new tours such as “Spiral Realm” and “Spiral Hero Tan” in the two-dimensional field. At the same time, it plans to launch an exploration game “Unknown Island” and women’s trends.game.

It is planned to inject Shanda’s assets, and Shanda Xinyou’s reserves are abundant. A number of boutique masterpieces will promote new highs in the pipeline. At the same time, Shengyue Network will complement the company’s reorganization of game categories and distribution areas.

Shengyue Network currently has abundant new tour reserves, including Tencent’s MMO mobile game “Dragon Valley World”, and the cooperation with Tencent’s “Dragon Valley Mobile Game” terminated in August 18 and gradually reached 28.

800 million. In addition, the card game “Radiation Shelter OL” has been opened on the Android platform. The “Radiation” series has 2 worldwide.

300 million users; other product reserves include MMO-type “Golden Ruling”, IP adaptation product “Ying Yu Nian”, card-type “King Girl Comes”, “Fate Singer”, “Goddess Evolution”, etc.Pushing new highs in running water.

In terms of business synergy, Shanda’s main products are mostly MMO categories. The injection of Shanda assets will effectively complement the interactive product line. In addition, Shanda’s rich IP reserves can provide sufficient materials for the company’s product incubation. In overseas distribution areas, ShandaSpecializing in the Asian market, and interacting with each other to deeply cultivate the European and American markets, the two will complement each other in the issue area.

Earnings forecast and investment grade: Regardless of Shengyue consolidation, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 80 in 18-20.

74/96.

56/108.

1.5 billion, realizing net profit attributable to mother 10.

06/12.

20/14.

09 billion; if you consider the consolidation, assuming the acquisition is completed in 19, the corresponding pro forma net profit for 19/20 is 37.

14/43.

7.7 billion yuan, after the consolidation, consider the issue of shares to purchase assets and the issuance of shares at the current price to raise the supporting capital to increase the share capital, corresponding to 19/20 EPS are 0.

95/1.

12 yuan, the current price is estimated to be 20 times corresponding to 19 years. Considering the company’s leading position and competitive advantage in the industry, we believe that the current estimate change must be attractive, and maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: stricter industry supervision; overseas market performance is less than expected; new product performance is less than expected.

Guanglianda (002410): The company’s cost business is moving to the cloud and the digital construction business is accelerating

Guanglianda (002410): The company’s cost business is moving to the cloud and the digital construction business is accelerating

Event: On July 30, 2019, the company released the 2019 semi-annual results flash report, realizing operating income13.

80,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29%, net profit attributable to the mother is 89.54 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39%.

  The company’s cost-converting business went smoothly.

The company continued to promote a comprehensive cloud transformation of its costing business. At present, the company’s cloud transformation area of its costing business has expanded to 21 regions across the country. In the first half of 19, the company’s engineering costing business revenue achieved a growth rate of 28%.

As of the end of the first half of the year, the balance of advance receipts related to the company’s cloud conversion was 6.

72 ppm, an increase of 62% at the beginning of the 19th year. As the revenue recognition under the cloud model shifted from one-off to instalment recognition, the revenue growth rate has been smoothed to a certain extent. In combination with the recovery of cloud prepayments, the revenue from the construction business was 12

23 trillion, 8 after recovery in the same period last year.

At 800 million US dollars, the previous growth rate of income increased from 28% to 39% before recovery.

  The company’s digital construction business accelerated.

The company completed the integration of digital construction business lines in 18 years, and released a digital project management platform (BIM + smart construction site) in the first half of 19 years. The construction business income in the first half of the year increased by more than 33%, which was an increase of approximately the same as the previous year.18 pct.

  Affected by the amortization of equity incentive expenses, the company’s net profit growth has improved.

In the first half of 19, the company’s net profit attributable to mothers exceeded 39%. The decrease was due to the impact of the cloud conversion 四川耍耍网 revenue recognition model change. The company implemented distribution incentives at the end of 18. According to the contents of the decentralized incentive disclosure, the company expected demand in 2019The fair incentive cost of the sale of the booth was 77.25 million yuan. Under the straight-line amortization method, the company is expected to confirm the equity incentive cost of nearly 40 million yuan in the first half of this year, resulting in improved pressure on the company’s profit end.

  Earnings forecast: We expect the company’s EPS for 2019/2020/2021 to be 0.

41 yuan, 0.

48 yuan and 0.

59 yuan, maintain “buy” rating.

  Risk reminder: the progress of construction business is affected by the start of downstream real estate, and there is uncertainty; the transfer of cloud business causes the company’s short-term 南宁桑拿 profit pressure

Ping An Bank (000001) 2019 Annual Report Comments: ROA Repeatedly Raises Bad Ratings

Ping An Bank (000001) 2019 Annual Report Comments: ROA Repeatedly Raises Bad Ratings

Ping An Bank disclosed in its 2019 annual report that net profit attributable to mothers was US $ 28.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.

6%.

The retail business developed steadily at the end of 2019. There were 97.08 million retail customers at the end of the quarter, and the single-quarter increment continued to remain at more than 3 million. The credit card debt balance at the end of the four seasons was 5404 trillion, a quarterly increase of 21.4 billion US dollars, and the increase has picked up. The auto loan balance was 179.2 billion yuan in the first three quarters.At the end, it increased by 110 trillion; the balance of the new loan was 1,574 trillion, up 20 trillion from the previous month, maintaining a slight growth trend.

The retail loan issuance speed has improved compared with the first three quarters, but in the fourth quarter, the expansion of public debt issuance. Therefore, the proportion of retail loans to loans has decreased by zero compared with the end of the first three quarters.

8 up to 58.

4%.

Benefiting from the retail transformation, ROA picked up the average ROE11 in 2019 in advance.

30%, a year drop of 19bps, of which ROA0.

78%, up 4bps each year.

From DuPont analysis, net interest / average assets (approximate net interest margin) contributed the most to the rise in ROA.

The company’s average daily net interest margin in 2019 is 2.

62%, an increase of 27bps per year.

Among them, benefiting from the decrease in interbank financing interest rates, the increase in cost of revenue decreased 夜来香体验网 by 21bps; and the yield of interest-earning assets increased by 6bps, mainly due to the increasing proportion of personal loans.

In terms of single quarter net interest margin, the fourth quarter and the third quarter were flat at 2.

62%.

Asset quality is steadily improving towards the end of 2019.

65%, a decrease of 3bps from the previous month; the overdue rate is 2.

24%, a decrease of 10bps from the previous month; 122% of non-performing / overdue loans over 90 days, an increase of 7% from the previous month;

01%, a drop of 38bps from the previous month;

47%, down 44bps from the previous month.

The year-on-year increase in non-performing ratios of credit cards and new loans at the end of the year was due to stricter non-performing identification standards, and the comparable non-performing ratios after the 都市夜网 caliber reduction were basically stable.

The company’s overall asset quality performance is stable and improving.

Investment recommendation The overall performance of the company is in line with expectations, and we maintain its “overweight” rating.

Risks suggest that the continued weakening of macroeconomic indicators may adversely affect the quality of bank assets.

Founder Securities February 2020 Gold Shares Portfolio

Founder Securities February 2020 Gold Shares Portfolio

The stock market depends on the research report of Jin Qilin analysts. It is authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive, helping you to explore potential topic opportunities!
  Source: Semiconductor weathervane. Risk reminder: The performance of the company involved in gold stocks is less than expected, the market has fallen sharply, significant changes have occurred in the investment logic of individual companies, and major negative events have occurred in the company’s operations.
  Note: The above core logic comes from the securities research report that has been sent out. The EPS and PE in the table above are forecasted using wind data. PE of 2019 is calculated by dividing the closing price on January 23, 2020 by 2019 EPS.
  Recommended reasons: 1. Founder, Bank, Ping An Bank, revenue growth rate remains high, net profit was slightly dragged down by Q4; the company’s fine-tuned business has achieved immediate results, and the liability end has achieved results; strengthened bad identification and write-offs, and accelerated the elimination of bad burdens.
  2/3/4 Founder 丨 Media Sanqi Mutual Entertainment ①Resumption history: Since its establishment, the company has seized every turning point in the industry and continued to iterate research and operation methodologies. The game business has maintained annual revenue growth.
  ②Looking to the future: The company’s founder team is stable (shareholding), focusing on the main game industry (struggling on the front line of the business), adhering to the spirit of marathon (long-term operation + continuous breakthrough), based on differentiated competition barriers, mobile game expansion categories + going to sea +The application of new technologies to restructure the distribution of benefits is expected to further open up the space for growth.
  Mango Super Media ① Facing the new macroeconomic situation, new industry policy requirements, and new changes in the competitive landscape, the company has always adhered to innovation and leadership and achieved rapid growth in performance in 2019.
  ② The company adheres to the production philosophy of content as the king, and continuously outputs high-quality variety shows and television programs.
  ③ 上海夜网论坛 The company’s forward-looking layout of 5G new technologies and new KOL business formats will expand the synergies of the entire mango industry chain ecosystem.
  New Media Co., Ltd. ① The company has steadily promoted the development of IPTV and OTT TV businesses, with rapid growth in performance and continued improvement in brand influence.
  ② The company ‘s IPTV business continued to improve, and users and ARPU values were effectively improved; the content and products continued to be enriched, and the company continued to increase the construction of ultra-high-definition, sports, film and television, and children’s content, and created a “Guangdong TV” through a number of major events”Brand influence to accelerate the rapid development of value-added business.
  ③ The company’s OTT TV cooperated with the head platform 深圳spa会所 to create a multi-application matrix; the cloud audiovisual series products steadily ranked in the OTT TV on-demand media head area, the cloud audiovisual aurora ranked first in the top two, and the cloud audiovisual small TV developed rapidly.
  ④ The company actively explores the layout of a smart home ecology, and jointly builds an artificial intelligence laboratory with Tencent and Hisilicon to realize the platform + content + terminal full industry chain cooperation, and promotes the construction of a smart broadcasting ecosystem.
  5 Founder 丨 Technology & Computer North China Chuang North China Chuang: Three expected differences under high prosperity.
  Expected difference 1: The accelerated expansion of advanced packaging and testing drives demand for high-end semiconductor technology and equipment.
  Expected difference two: the panel industry is reversed, and the domestic companies’ competitiveness in the global panel industry has increased, driving the amount of supporting equipment.
  Expected difference three: The localization of memory has brought historic opportunities for domestic semiconductor equipment companies, and the company’s storage orders in the Yangtze River have been smoothly obtained.
  6 Founder 丨 Electronics 乐 鑫 科技 ① Card IoT WiFi MCU segmentation area, connecting massive IoT needs.
  ② Integrated software and hardware ecosystem to build a deep moat.
  ③AI opens up new application market space.
  7 Founder 丨 Automotive Ningbo Huaxiang The company’s performance has grown strongly, and mass production of thermoformed products has contributed greatly; the company’s operations have improved, and profitability and cash flow have gradually strengthened.
  8  方正丨化工  玲珑轮胎  ①增强公司对于核心人才的吸引力,提升公司竞争力;  ②公司和个人双重考核,激发员工活力;  ③激励成本对公司业绩的影响较小;  ④看好玲珑轮胎量价齐Rise, growth has just begun.
  9 Founder 丨 Machinery Xugong Machinery s performance was in line with expectations.
In the first half of 2020, the prosperity of the construction machinery industry will continue, the company’s core product sales will grow at a high speed, focus on clearing risks, consolidate asset quality, further enhance profitability, steadily advance mixed reforms, and corporate governance will move to a new level.
  10 Founder 丨 Nonferrous Co., Ltd. 友 Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. ①Benefited from the rebound in cobalt prices and improved profitability; 环 ②Issued shares to purchase Huayou Luzhou to control core resources of the business; ③Supply disturbances continued, and cobalt prices still have room for upwards.