Pan Xiangdong: Sino-US trade friction conflict has begun, and ultimately the possibility to avoid war?

With newspaper Author: New Times Securities macroeconomic research Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of the China Society for Finance of the Ninth Council executive director, members of the Finance Committee of Experts on the reform and development think tank, an analyst at China Securities Association of Professional Committee members, China's chief economics home Board of Governors。 Recently affect the sensitive nerve between the two countries not only continue for many years to comprehensive China-US economic dialogue, anti-dumping investigations against Chinese exports of commodities such as steel, ready to punitive tariffs on some Chinese goods wider adoption of, and restrictions on Chinese investment reduce visa, the United States more recently signed the "Taiwan Travel Act," Sino-US friction seems to continue to heat up。
Why at this time of conflict between China and the US will increase, what is the reason behind this is?How to deal with the future of Sino-US relations, the ability to avoid intensification of the conflict affect China's process of renewal?1 Sino-US conflict origin, Trump strengthen back to a virtual entity, would be to reverse the recession in the United States after the Vietnam war and the start of reform and opening up in China ten years, Sino-US relations have entered a honeymoon period, as China into the US-led market economic system, China's economy increasingly high degree of opening up, China has gradually become the world's second largest economy。
But China has become the world's second largest economy, when the conflict between the two countries began to appear, starting with Obama to return to Asia-Pacific strategy, initiated TPP to isolate China For international trade, the South China Sea conflict, it seems that incidents are constantly derivative。
Although it seems to get along friendlier between China and the US Trump took office, but from the second half of last year, relations between the two countries in the area of trade friction had already started to appear。 It is not difficult to see, whether the Republicans on the stage, on stage or Democrat, from China since becoming the world's second largest economy, seems to have become hard to become a constructive partnership between the two countries。
The root cause of this situation is that, as China becomes stronger, will inevitably impact the existing US-led global unilateralism。
Faced with this uncertainty about the possible impact, the way to achieve peace through the effective containment to avoid the impact, for the United States is naturally the best strategy。 After Trump came to power, more is achieved in the area of trade US strategic priorities, not only generate trade friction with China, but also to begin to redress the imbalance in trade with allies, and even asked some military allies to bear the cost, many this is also silent resentment allies。
The grasp of strategy, Trump is a strong team, they not only see China catch up with the challenges brought about, but also saw reason for the decline of the United States: virtual economy has been rapidly expanding, the United States continue to make industrial hollowing。
1990 yy – M 2010, about a net outflow of US dollars trillion, equivalent to the same period in the United States trillions of dollars of net investment%。
United States in mid-2009 appears for the first time ever negative growth of net investment, when the United States a net decrease of $ 272 billion investment。 Historically any powers to decline because of domestic interest groups curing, curing of these interest groups become rentier class, continue to carry out the export of capital or exploitation, and accumulation of long years, they have become the ruling class, they have decided the country decision (see Pan Xiangdong of "real prosperity")。 Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands were once a maritime power, by taking chances early after looting a large number of the world's treasures began when become rentier class, start a business capital, played down the Ocean Development, also played down the adventure。 Through export of capital, despite the rentier class can reap dividends, to enjoy life, but only to support the development of marine technology in other countries, support the development of industrial technology in other countries, to support other countries become stronger and eventually I go to the decline。
British Industrial Revolution to become powerful and rich country, with the continuous expansion of the financial system, continued to export capital to the United States。
For example: in mid-1914, a British overseas investment of up to $ 18.3 billion, equivalent to Britain the same year net investment of 48 million pounds (about billion) of 95 times。 1914 –1938 year after year, British foreign investment has been maintained at the level of 17 billion dollars a year, accounting for about 40% of the total foreign investment in the entire Western nations。 Eventually the United States, Germany's manufacturing sector continued rapid development, but also to the United States to replace power status。 Trump's team clearly see this trend, so when running for president from Trump proposed, he wanted to revive the US real economy, I want to reverse America's decline。 To revive the US real economy, we need to enhance the competitive advantage of the United States in terms of the real economy。 So, after Trump came to power, foreign trade protection introduced by way of a trade war, suppress competition。
The use of internal taxes reduce the real economy (tax cuts), to promote infrastructure projects, to encourage multinational companies to invest in the country, at the same time enable Bi Yelun more hawkish Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, to achieve financial capital off the virtual reality。 If only to revive the US real economy through competition in the economic field, that is actually no need to worry for China, after all, China has become the world's manufacturing powerhouse。
In the process of China's manufacturing industry upgrade, the US trade protection measures against China will eventually have little effect, after all, the international division of labor is not so easily can be reversed。 In mid-1932, the face of the United States, the rapid development of Germany, the United Kingdom in order to maintain their dominance, the implementation of trade protectionism in the implementation of imperial preference, to impose high tariffs on goods from countries outside the UK, but in the end did not change its decline pattern, did not stop the rapid development of the United States。
But for China, we still need to beware of the two countries fall into the trap of Thucydides。 2 History repeated, Thucydides trap, the sun is not a new thing Thucydides trap, refers to a new rising power is bound to challenge the existing powers, while the existing powers are bound to respond to this threat, this war has become unavoidable。
This statement from the famous ancient Greek historian Thucydides, in his view, when a rising great power competition and rule of dominant existing danger faced by most of the parties to end the war。 Cold War era, the rise of powers does not solve not through war, because war is the best means to plunder the wealth。 Ancient Greek prosperous, but it was finally conquered by the Roman cavalry, once bustling ashes。 Roman city known as the Eternal City, but eventually fell to the Goths。
With advanced marine technology and looted from the colonies over wealth, Portugal and Spain rise rapidly build out the Armada, but with the emerging European countries Britain, France, the Netherlands produced a constant war, in 1588, Armada was defeated Great Britain, subsequently conquered by the French military genius Napoleon。
Holland replaced the Spanish in the 17th century as the world's number one maritime power, on a global scale has been widely colony, but experienced four Anglo-Dutch War, and finally to 1795, faced with the heel of the French army, the Dutch Republic know what to surrender , the last ruling William V fled to Britain, since 1579, the Dutch Republic Dutch painstakingly created to this end, enjoy Jo 216 years。 Although in 1588 the British defeated the Spanish Armada, and then they defeated the maritime carriage Fu Helan, and later with its leading industrial revolution brought about by the rapid growth of wealth, in the late 18th century Seven Years' War, he also defeated the French, well-deserved Empire became the world number one。
I regret that the UK is fast catching up in Germany in World War II slander the vitality, the sun never sets empire eventually reduced to US attendant。
Even in World War II defeat of Germany and Japan, with the rapid development of the post-war economic strength later in excess of the UK。
(See Pan Xiangdong of "real prosperity") from a historical point of view, once the global hegemon, no not the first to be challenged on the economy began to decline, and finally collapse into decline war。 3 break open financial difficulties, and the mature economies rentier class of benefit in spite of bilateral economic trade friction will have an impact, and can not change the course of China's rapid development continues, but the war is not the same。 Since nuclear weapons, missile technology, developed stealth technology, to direct war between the great powers, almost hard to imagine that the Earth may have been brought to the disaster, leaving the Earth may not develop, but survival。 Therefore, as rational decision-makers, the probability of occurrence of a direct war powers is almost negligible (of course, we also need to be vigilant, a World War II battle and the results are non-rational decisions)。 As countries need to further catch-up, as long as there is cooperation between dominant and eventually will be beneficial to release their economic potential growth is beneficial to the country to become stronger。 So, on the way national recovery still need to try to avoid conflicts between the major powers and has, even if all-out war does not occur, if the emergence of local friction will bring setbacks to national recovery。
Even if trade friction will not affect the process of rapid development, but if there is a general sanctions, it will also affect the process of revival。
How to reduce such conflicts?Further opening of China's financial markets and to broaden the field of investment, to rentiers mature economies share dividend economic development brought about, of course, for our country is to allow their capital to further promote the development of China's real economy so that national change more to strengthen large。
Economic development into a mature economy class has begun to solidify, so-called capitalists have become rentier class, they not only affect the country's political and economic policies, and even the so-called head of state but also their spokesman。 By way of further financial liberalization, so that these capitalists to catch the train further development of China, and from which they can expect to get points bonuses, economies do I have you, then they will not make extreme nature of the government of China policy。
Respective interests, the heart!For us, do not have to worry too much about these rentiers will receive dividends in our development, the development of a peaceful environment is the key to revival。
We can use these financial capital to develop our real economy, cultivate internationally competitive industries and enterprises。
To this end, the core of open financial sector is to achieve financial capital off the virtual to real, rather than entertain in the financial system, create risk。
The development of the real economy, and the global competitiveness of the industry strong, powerful countries can only be counted on in the true sense, it can be said to achieve a revival。


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