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August 5, 2018

Wall Street analysts view large summary: the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates affect the geometry on the market?

Tencent Securities News reported, according to Reuters, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, and is expected to raise interest rates in 2018 will be at least twice, indicating that confidence in the US tax cuts and government spending growing, they believe will boost the economy and inflation and lead to a more aggressive tightening policy in the future。
Policy makers expect next year will raise interest rates three times in 2020 will increase by 2 times, which further demonstrates confidence in the economy。 The following is a summary of Wall Street analysts reviews: San Francisco general manager of brokerage Wedbush Securities Company Directors StephenMassocca: "the market is still below its peak。
The 30-year bond yields are also lower than its high point。
I do not think there are any new messages。
This only increases the time basis points this year we want to raise a total of 3 times。 I do not know why anyone would be surprised。 If some really strong economic data, such as employment or inflation, then this year may raise interest rates four times。 I think this will not happen。 My view is that they will raise interest rates to 2% to% and see what reaction there will be。 "If we get 3-4% inflation report 2-3 times, then the Fed will take more aggressive action。 "Utah AlbionFinancial chief investment officer JasonWare:" the market worried that the Fed will be more hawkish stance in the short term, but this equilibrium is, look to the future, 2019 and 2020 may enter a steeper hike road。 The market is trying to maintain balance during short and long, but in the stock market, the short-term is more important than long-term。
2019 and 2020 things to know when they could。
"Russell, general manager of global markets research director of New York-rich AlecYoung:" Investors' attention focused on the pace of the Fed's latest monetary policy and the prospects for future rate hikes。 Prior to today's decision, many investors are worried that based on the latest tax policy to bring fiscal stimulus, rising inflation and global economic growth will lead the Fed to commit synchronization excessive tightening of policy errors。
The Fed's latest economic outlook is not as hawkish as feared, which led to the release of the rebound in the stock market, because the market reduced expectations for sustained economic growth and a gradual increase of interest rates。 Overall, while the Federal Reserve investors still have confidence in the fact that economic expansion willingness to continue to gradually raise interest rates endorse attitude is not extreme, a degree of relaxation。 "Santa Clara, California Silicon Valley Bank, a senior foreign exchange dealer MinhTrang:" While the overall economic outlook for the Fed is hawkish, but it looks a bit disappointing because the dollar reaction to this disappointing。
I still think this is a long-term hawkish tone style, which is good news for the dollar。 Enter 2018, there are many factors bearish dollar。 "Exhibition Center Capital Global Asset Allocation department portfolio manager CandiceBangsund:" statement has a new message, that basically admitted that the economic outlook has improved in recent months, which is obviously the development of a more hawkish。
At the same time the Fed also acknowledged that some of the data in the first quarter of this year has eased after strong fourth quarter。
We look forward to the new Chairman of the Fed's Yellen and conditions of the same age。 Although he was slightly dovish semi-annual Congressional testimony, but Powell admitted that his personal view has been strengthened。
He is not afraid to speak their expectations or opinions。
Neutral statement given us more of the status quo, let us gradually adapt to the normalization of the market, which is why the market will react as。 But not particularly significant accidents。 "Fort Lauderdale, Florida, chief global strategist at MarkGrant: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy statement is consistent with the overall expectations。
In addition to the stock market, no market reaction to this more intense, because the market is finally more than three times the rate hike will not occur and a relief。 The statement on the US economy grew the most optimistic attitude, seem to ignore the Atlanta Fed's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of data currently only%。 Currently a member of the Federal Open Market Committee is expected that the US GDP will grow by%% higher than last December's forecast。 I think the stock market is expected to react to growth。 US Treasury prices fell, but only slightly lower。 Overall, no big surprises, but it will continue Yellen policy。 "Atlanta, Georgia GlobaltInvestments senior portfolio manager ThomasMartin:" Everyone is expected to raise interest rates, but to raise interest rates three times or four times is a problem。
So far, the Fed is expected to keep three times。
The reason is that the Fed said that economic activity since the last meeting have been slowing。
Moderate economic growth, so they will not put it to raise interest rates is expected to increase to 4 times。 All in all, the reason the information is passed to the market and S & P 500 index rose that economic growth is still good, and the 2019 and 2020 economic growth is likely to be more lasting than people think。
But in the long run, you better keep expectations modest, it is good for stocks,。
"Senior economist at Ameriprise Minneapolis RussellPrice:" I still think the most likely to raise interest rates three times this year。 They do doves and hawks forecast for fine-tuning。 The unemployment rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, fell by a percentage point。 But for long-term federal funds rate expectations were also raised points。 In other words, they point out that the unemployment rate may decline slightly, without generating additional inflationary pressures。
This is conducive to the economy maintained a good growth rate, it will not generate a lot of inflation。
This shows that they are still waiting to see whether this year's fiscal stimulus measures to make the economy from overheating。 They might give yourself some leeway to stay, considering that despite the increase in stimulus measures to make the economy this year may perform well, but if the tariff situation continues to deteriorate, economic growth could be weaker。 Like everyone else, the Fed would like to see what happens。 "JohnHancock investment market strategist MattMiskin:" guide to future rate hike is more hawkish than initially expected。 We expect 2019 will accelerate the pace of rate hikes。
This year, the situation may be similar。 The tone adopted by the new Fed chairman at the start of his leadership positions a bit tougher。 On stock, we have to focus on how it is reacting because the initial reaction is not entirely good。 Financial stocks led the gains I would not be surprised。 As long as economic growth can support the stock market, the stock market can withstand a faster rate hikes, the Fed's point of view but also from the forecast, GDP will be enough to support the stock market in a more tightening cycle。 "New York BMO Capital Markets interest rate strategist AaronKohli:" I think the Fed has done quite well in the process of raising interest rates, which is a well-designed long journey, and everyone convey good information。 Compared with the situation I expected, this is a very dovish。
See Powell in the context of the market reaction would be to say something very interesting。 The important point of this meeting is that unlike in the past is that this is not a concern, but the market reaction to the Fed's reaction to the Fed's market。
Actually, the key is the market reaction to Powell。
Whether he wishes to Bernanke way to guide the market, or will it make the same statement speak for itself like Yellen?Given the market reaction was, perhaps he may not need to come forward to explain。 But if the markets react strongly, right or wrong is very important to judge the market。 "Vice president of Austin, Texas CharlesSchwab company and trade derivative products RandyFrederick:" There's nothing really shocking。
I think the market's surge and decline is a normal phenomenon。 We often see the market respond quickly, and often wrong。 Powell said that if the possibility of any reason that the market is strong, it may be more rate hikes of 4。 So the market may be some degree of decline。 But I do not think there will be a substantial decline。
"Global interest rate strategy at Credit Suisse in New York PraveenKorapaty:" This is expected to be milder than some of our economists。 Overall, however, if it is to separate the expected point of view, I do not think too hard nor too soft。
We continue to believe that, even if the value of the point does not move, they will continue to raise interest rates four times this year。
I think the point hike in value from 2018, four times worse 1:00。
So I think four times the rate hike should be reasonable。
"Washington TempusConsulting senior currency trader and strategist JuanPerez:" The most important thing is that the Fed adhere to the original plan to raise interest rates three times。 If it is more of a hike a bit too much。
Any faster increase in borrowing costs will affect the economy。
I believe that the current pace of rate hikes is quite good。
Some people think that we will raise interest rates four times this year。
Another thing is that the economic outlook has been enhanced, which is a good thing。 Powell told Congress that the situation is very consistent。
They really think the economy strong enough, it is possible to further raise borrowing costs。
Charles Schwab Center for Financial Research, chief fixed-income strategist KathyJones: "I think a little bit hawkish bias。
If again a point of change, four times the rate hike is expected to occur this year, so they are very close to this direction。
They upgraded the assessment of the economy, I think it is very important。
I think this shows that they are considering the impact of tax cuts and spending increases。 All this shows that they stand a little tough。 I'm surprised the market did not react to this, but I think it shows that the market for this feeling has begun to greatly reduced。 "Huntersville, North Carolina cornerstone of wealth management partner JeffCarbone:" to raise interest rates is not surprising。
For interest rate increase in 2018, which is indeed reassuring, no changes occur。 This is the event that we are concerned about。 Inflation is still the focus of their concern。 Continue to reduce unemployment is good。
It is believed that the economy is strong。
We may be in the latter part of the business cycle, but in the latter part of the early stages of the business cycle。
This means that the market is certainly still there is more space to run。 Boston 3edge Asset Management chief investment strategist FritzFolts: "At present, the stock market is holding their breath, no matter what the meeting passed a confidence, will bring a very big impact on the stock market。
I do not understand how you can say the Fed is not a risk。
The Fed is certainly a risk, I do not think you can discount this。 The problem is that you have a Fed unknown person。 We have not, and he held more than three times the press conference, we do not know how to interpret what he said。
Our reaction to this the stock market is not a very radical am very happy, because it may promote Send a market moving in different directions。 The reason press release no surprising news, which is a good thing, and this is a positive market response: "CFRAResearch investment strategist LindseyBell"。
The Fed is still expected to raise interest rates three times this year。
2019 and 2020 they increased by 1 and 2。
I think this market is expected。
At the press conference, they increase the expected economic growth and reduce the unemployment rate expectations, but almost no change in inflation expectations。 Therefore, we need to see more explanation, because in this environment, inflation will rise in some of the。 Minneapolis LeutholdGroup chief investment strategist JimPaulsen: "The Fed is really good for the economy is expected, not only for this year but also for next year, because they are very dovish on interest rates expected in 2019 and 2020。
And they're just one vote from raising interest rates four times in 2018。
This tells you that in 2018, four times the rate hike is likely to be considered。 The stock market's initial reaction was to rise, because the Fed seems to show confidence in the economy。
However, with rising bond yields, expected future there will be more rate hikes, this case once again scared stock market。
This is the dilemma faced by the market。
Good economic growth could also mean higher inflation and higher bond yields。 Today's market performance is a microcosm of the overall performance of the year。 It follows news of economic growth and rising interest rates to follow the news and fell。
LibertyviewCapitalManagement president of Jersey City's RickMeckler: "There is no doubt that the actual interest rate increase is not surprising。 Positive factor in the market is the reason for the necessity of future rate hikes seem to have a strong focus on the Fed's expectations of economic conditions, rather than to prevent excessive inflation。 If the economy can grow, while inflation remain moderate, it is certainly willing to see the stock market。 This suggests that this year will continue to raise interest rates, and it looks like next year will continue to raise interest rates, which will bring more competition in the stock market。 So I think, as investors tried to take advantage of higher interest rates to invest in fixed-income products to balance the forces of economic growth, which will bring the stock market problems。
"(Wolf)。