[Expedited] Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as scheduled brokerage rushed Comments: whether China's central bank will follow up?

  Beijing on March 22 morning, hiked interest rates by 25 basis points to% -%, and is expected in the coming months inflation will accelerate。
This is the first time the Fed to raise interest rates this year, Powell also served as chairman of the Fed's first rate hike since。
In addition to the Fed's 2018 median annual interest rate forecast has not changed, suggesting interest rates will still be three times。 But its statement show that from 2019 to 2020 will be even more steeply in mid-hike。
  Federal Reserve monetary policy after the end of the day regular meeting issued a statement saying the US job market has continued to strengthen, economic activity has been on steady rise。 In recent months, employment growth has been very strong, the unemployment rate has remained at low。   Since the start of the current round of Fed tightening cycle in December 2015, it has been raising interest rates six times。 Last October, the Fed also began to shrink their balance sheets。
  After the interest rate decision announcement, US stocks lower, the S & P 500 was down%; Dow fell%; down%。   US 10-year rose%, down slightly%;% rise; rose over 3% (,) Xie Yaxuan that the US economic fundamentals is the main support for the better interest rate, especially the CPI has 6 consecutive months at 2 % or more, the core PCE has for three consecutive months remained at%。 The recent re-adjustment of stocks and shares land through inflows may have been significantly reduced its specific performance。 In addition, Sino-US trade war is expected to continue warming may also affect the level of inflation in the United States。 The news came from the US point of view, the Trump trade protection policy may no longer be a simple "show" particular concern "301 investigation" of intellectual property protection, which China exports to the US accounted for a relatively one of the high electronic chips, high mechanical and electrical correlation, if the final results are not conducive to China, the United States itself inflation may also play a role in lifting, which may also be the year the number of variables。   Tianfeng Securities fixed income Sun Binbin that, while the current position is still the year to raise interest rates three times, but late last year and compare this bitmaps interest rate situation, there are clearly more of its members support raising interest rates four times, basically forming a flat rate three times to raise interest rates to support, so the Fed to raise interest rates overall attitude tends to be "partial Hawk"。
  Whether China will follow?  Since this clinches Fed rate hike, the market focus focus to the Chinese central bank body, the central bank open market interest rates at the tune it?  "We see China's monetary policy is mainly based and financial situation, we have to carry out comprehensive consideration。
"Yi Gang Central Bank press conference in the national 'two sessions' held in response to the case。 Yi Gang was March 19 to take over as central bank governor。
  (,): China's central bank to raise interest rates is not the necessity to follow, even if the impact is limited to follow。
  We believe that the current China's central bank necessity to follow the Fed rate hike is not too great。 On the one hand, the economy is a big country, enjoys an independent monetary policy, the United States last year following the major concerns in the open market to raise interest rates in the devaluation, interest rates to stabilize the exchange rate。
However, the current sharp depreciation of the dollar, the RMB exchange rate appreciation, without the need to stabilize the exchange rate and interest rates。
Second, from the domestic economy, inflation trend, although coincident indicators of investment growth rebounded, but the agency leading indicator of financial growth fell sharply, inflation expectations fell to two-year low, inflation is down subsequent economic pressures, the central bank raised interest rates lack of necessity。
Even if China's central bank last raised the selected interest rates open market operations, we believe the rates are very limited, the official central bank interest rates are still much lower than market rates, it is difficult to have a substantial impact on market interest rates。
  (,) Fixed income, principal analyst clearly: OMO central bank will raise the interest rates or CITIC Securities research team obviously think, from the point of view abroad, the Fed in March to raise interest rates in line with market expectations the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in March as scheduled reflects the US economy faith is increased。 The market had been expected to raise interest rates four times did not really fall, but this rate hike bitmap view, the possibility of raising interest rates four times higher than the previous increase a lot。
From a domestic perspective, the fundamentals stabilized, deleveraging continued to advance, or the central bank will raise interest rates OMO operations。
In terms of our support for the first half of this year, the central bank may raise benchmark deposit and lending rates, the asymmetric rate hikes may be one of the options the central bank operations。
In terms of international policy cycle, the economic cycle and interest rate distortions, China's bond market is still under pressure。
Therefore, we insist on the recent 10-year bond yield to maturity will remain%?4% range, and it is expected to gradually rise to 4% of the judgment hub。
  (,) Chief Analyst: China's central bank might set the official benchmark interest rate hike following the Huatai Securities chief analyst Li Chao believes that China's central bank may raise interest rates on benchmark interest rates following a given official。 He believes that the US interest rate with bond spreads continued to narrow, and has a 3% inflation in February the central bank to raise interest rates close to the threshold, the domestic economic performance than expected, creating space for the official set the benchmark interest rate adjustment。 From a technical point of view, this week, the central bank increase the amount due MLF sequel, it means that next week a high probability renounce the use of MLF rate hikes operation。
(,): The Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in order to feed our "new rate hike" follow 5-10bp concerns about whether the country's central bank will raise interest rates to follow。 Overall, the new adjustment OMO interest rate hike will replace the old interest rates adjusted deposit and lending rates, while the Fed rate hike the central bank will provide a better window of time, the new year is still room to raise interest rates 15-20bp, and to follow the style of the times to raise interest rates slightly。 This year the dynamic combination of US debt and the dollar as the key, up-than-expected US yields, the dollar stronger-than-expected combination may be the largest interest rates up the risks。
: Ways to strengthen capital controls to maintain stability if China's central bank to raise interest rates to follow up, there will be two risks: first, the market is prone to burst the bubble, a direct threat to the stability of the financial system, easily lead to systemic risk。 Second, small and medium enterprises as the representative of the real economy, credit availability and cost of capital will rise further, hit the real economy。
  If you do not follow China's central bank to raise interest rates, due to changes in interest rate levels led to capital outflows, devaluation。
Interest rates and exchange rates will adjust passive, there will be a certain degree of volatility, affecting the real economy and financial markets。
  In the current Chinese economic transformation and foster new momentum in the background, the best goal is to keep interest rates and exchange rate stability。 Then there is China's central bank to deal with two tools: first, in the unlikely triangle high probability to sacrifice free movement of capital in return for interest rates and exchange rate stability, to strengthen the level of capital controls。 Second, in the financial markets through targeted operations, under the conditions of maintaining the overall monetary policy neutral, increase the cost of capital outflows。   From the overall market, the Fed rate hike will affect the long end up interest rates, thus limiting the height of the global valuation of risky assets。
From the point of view, if we adopt ways to strengthen capital controls to maintain stability, the smaller A-share market have been hit。
  From the industry perspective, there is the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates lead to upward pressure on the dollar, US dollar revenues for the benefit of export-oriented industries and large holdings of dollar assets industry, otherwise damaged。 There is the opportunity to electronics, textile clothing, overseas project, the state of large banks and other industries, and other industries there is pressure。
  Chief Yuping Kang: China will not take the initiative to follow the pace of US interest rates Yangtze chief economist pension Yuping Kang believes that smaller Fed rate hike impact on the Chinese economy。
From a domestic perspective, if not a series of policy measures to financial regulators intensive introduction of domestic monetary policy should be consistent with the United States。 But the current domestic policy with the United States in the reverse state, especially domestic financing rates remain high; the country does not want a huge loss of foreign exchange reserves resulting impact on the economic and financial security, therefore, China will not take the initiative to follow the footsteps of the United States to raise interest rates。
  : Fed to raise interest rates or increase the likelihood of the central bank to raise the benchmark interest rate Yang Delong believes the Fed to raise interest rates for China's economy faces little effect, may increase the likelihood the central bank raised the benchmark interest rate。 The current domestic economic data show that China's import and export, industrial added value and other data surpassed expectations, inflation rose slightly。
For A shares, the Fed rate hike has little effect, remain at the level of range-bound, while the consumer sector and the White Horse shares may form wheel drive, bring structural market。   China rate hike impact on the market 1, the stock market investment securities Xieya Xuan pointed out that the interest rate for the United States as well as in terms of equity assets are likely to bring a significant negative impact, the recent re-adjustment of stocks and shares land through inflows may have been significantly reduced the specific performance。
  From the historical data, Fed rate hike impact on A shares is not very clear, A shares are still run by its own laws。 Take a look at previous Fed rate hike before and after the A-share trend: 2, Kyushu securities Deng Haiqing bond market that the Fed rate hike, China OMO interest rates may increase or may not increase, but whether or not transfer shall not affect the bond market bullish tone; possible increase may not increase, it will raise short-term impact on the bond market, but because of money market interest rates are much higher than deposit rates and lending rates comparable, and therefore deposit interest rates will not change the pattern of long-term debt cow 2018。   3, the RMB exchange rate in terms of the RMB exchange rate, (,) division Li Liu Yang said that the People's Bank may be raised slightly as the open market as interest rates after the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December, so the Fed rate hike may not change the shock consolidation pattern。
  Securities executive director Zhang Jun said, whether it is three or four times to raise interest rates hike is within market expectations, the economy and the market will not have too great an impact。 Fed rate hike will not significantly improve long-term debt interest rates and the dollar index, so little effect on the exchange rate, expected during the year, while the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates will not have a significant devaluation pressure。   4, the property market mortgage interest rates expected to rise E-House Real Estate Research Institute Yang Hongxu that: At present, the country's first suite of lending rates climbed to an average of%, equivalent to the benchmark interest rate times。   Above the level of interest of the whole society, as well as taking into account the accelerated pace of the Fed raising interest rates, then the 2018 first mortgage interest rates will continue to rise。
  Even product yields in excess of 5% of the bank to the buyers issuing% or less in mortgage interest rates, became Kuibenmaimai。   As for the two sets of mortgage interest rates go up more space on。


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